Apr 20, 2013; Commerce City, CO, USA; Seattle Sounders defender Djimi Traore (19) and Colorado Rapids midfielder Atiba Harris (16) battle for the ball in the second half at Dick

Sounders And Non-Predictive Goal Trends Analysis

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I like doing things backwards. I must. I do it so frequently that it can some times even infuriate myself, let alone whoever else is working on that same project as me. I let things out like “Oh, I should have done that first.” Well, no duh there Sherlock. Well, I started out this morning working at gathering some basic historical trends.Taking a look at what the Sounders had scored when it comes to goals and at what week they scored. So I recorded and below is a little chart of when and where they accumulated their goals.

 

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
WEEK1 3 2 0 3 0
WEEK2 5 2 1 5 1
WEEK3 7 4 2 5 1
WEEK4 7 5 4 5 2
WEEK5 7 7 6 6 2
WEEK6 9 7 7 8 3
WEEK7 10 8 8 10
WEEK8 11 8 11 11
WEEK9 12 9 12 13
WEEK10 14 9 13 13
WEEK11 15 9 14 15
WEEK12 15 12 15 15
WEEK13 17 14 15 16
WEEK14 20 15 17 17
WEEK15 21 16 17 18
WEEK16 23 17 19 19
WEEK17 22 18 20 21
WEEK18 22 20 24 21
WEEK19 22 21 26 23
WEEK20 22 23 26 25
WEEK21 24 23 29 27
WEEK22 24 25 33 31
WEEK23 25 26 34 32
WEEK24 25 26 36 34
WEEK25 27 30 36 40
WEEK26 27 31 37 41
WEEK27 28 34 43 43
WEEK28 29 36 44 44
WEEK29 32 38 47 45
WEEK30 34 40 50 45
WEEK31 34 40 52 48
WEEK32 34 41 52 48
WEEK33 54 51
WEEK34 57 51

 

And again, only in a nice little picture.


The thing to remember about this is that it’s not a predictive measurement of how the Sounders will finish the season. Goal’s aren’t a good indicator for the ability short or long term to continue scoring or not scoring goals. Which, in turn doesn’t tell us a lot about how the Sounders will finish this season, obviously.

What it does tell us is that there are long periods in which this team has struggled to score goals in the past. That didn’t deter past squads from failing to make the playoffs and it shouldn’t with this club. I’m hard pressed to believe Dallas FC, Chivas USA or Real Salt Lake are clubs that will continue to play at such a high level. Not because they don’t have good players but because of a lot of various factors.

Looking at tempo-free soccer and Alex latest post “2013 MLS Neutral Power Rankings (Good Offense + Bad Defense)”, it currently has the Sounders ranked 12th ahead of FC Dallas and just behind RSL. If you look at some more advanced stats, that are more indicative of future success, you can see there are holes in each team that sits ahead of Seattle.

I’m not saying that this season is guaranteed to get back on track–we’ve got our own set of problems–but the with the parity between clubs so close, the Sounders are going to have opportunities when other clubs take their swoons.

The chances are going to be there, the question is will the Sounders have the personnel healthy and not out with the Mens National team to take advantage of them. Be patient rave green supporters.

#EBFG

 

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